Friday, September 12, 2008

ForexGen Explains Market Volatility

ForexGen provides its users with a full explained market analysis, fundamental or technical. ForexGen news centre could be your guide in making your calculations and forecasts for the coming period, and helps in analyzing fundamentals.

Volatility at 7 Yr High - One month at the money EUR/USD volatilities also hit the highest level in 7 years. Volatility peaked at 14.55 in the EUR/USD days after the 9/11 attack. We are faced with sharp volatilities once again with ATM 1 month voles at 12.63. High volatility tells us that the currency markets are still nervous but periods of high volatility usually proceed periods of lower volatility. Back in 2001, after volatility peaked, the trading ranges in the EUR/USD contracted by 50% - which range lasted for 8 months.

The weakness of the Euro

Eurozone Needs a Weak Euro - The weakness of the Euro should be comforting for the European Central Bank because it is the answer to many of their problems. As an export dependent region, the slide in the Euro will help to support the economy, just like the weakness of the US dollar has contributed to corporate profitability. The Eurozone can also handle a weaker currency at this time because oil prices have fallen materially. Therefore don't expect the ECB to stem the currency's fall. We still believe that there will be further losses in the EUR/USD but not beyond 1.35.

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